{"id":3689,"date":"2022-08-12T11:37:57","date_gmt":"2022-08-12T11:37:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/apd2022.net\/?post_type=lectures&#038;p=3689"},"modified":"2022-08-24T16:29:22","modified_gmt":"2022-08-24T16:29:22","slug":"old-age-mortality-deceleration-and-the-modal-age-at-death-insights-from-dynamic-laws-of-adult-mortality","status":"publish","type":"lectures","link":"https:\/\/apd2022.net\/en\/lectures\/old-age-mortality-deceleration-and-the-modal-age-at-death-insights-from-dynamic-laws-of-adult-mortality\/","title":{"rendered":"Old-age mortality deceleration and the modal age at death: insights from dynamic laws of adult mortality"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>We estimated overall period and cohort age-mortality patterns following a gamma-Gompertz-<br>Makeham (\u0393GM) model, expressed in terms of the old-age modal age at death (M) and taking<br>advantage of the Life Table Aging Rate (LAR) parametric representation.<br>For different countries from the Human Mortality Database, we first take advantage of Horiuchi<br>and Coale\u2019s LAR to seek for more precision in parameter estimation and define the best age to<br>start fitting the model across different periods. Secondly, we test Vaupel\u2019s hypothesis by period<br>a cohort by fitting a \u0393GM model, seeking evidence to confirm or refute the existence of a constant<br>rate of individual aging over time, and if, the obtained estimates accordingly each subpopulation,<br>i.e., country, present essentially the same rate of individual aging. Thirdly, we elaborate on the<br>relationship between the estimated LARs and 1) the rate of life expectancy increases in the chosen<br>countries; 2) the age patterns of mortality deceleration in the overall population; 3) the<br>relationship between M and the age of mortality deceleration (X<em>); and 4) the impact of specific causes-of-death on M. At the same time, we also test the goodness of fit of the LAR formula by Vaupel and Zhang. Fourthly, we verify the heterogeneity hypothesis that a) deceleration is less pronounced with lower death rates; and b) mortality deceleration should occur at later ages due to selection effects. Results, confirm that \u0393GM model-based estimates expressed in terms of M are more stable; LAR\u2019s estimation residuals are influenced by the starting age of fitting; but capture well empirical LAR, registering simultaneously, a shift in the age of mortality deceleration with time. Across countries and between sexes different ages of mortality deceleration are identified, suggesting a relationship between the rate of life expectancy increase, X<\/em>, M, and the estimated LARs.<br>Additionally, parameters estimates are also more constant across sex, period, and country.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/apd2022.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/lectures\/3689"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/apd2022.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/lectures"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/apd2022.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/lectures"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/apd2022.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}