Mortality and Epidemiological Transition: India and Its Concerns: A study based on urban Maharashtra

Using medical certification of causes of death (MCCD) data from urban Maharashtra, we examined the pattern of causes of death by age and sex since the 1990s. The study found a substantial advancement in the epidemiological profile of urban Maharashtra: deaths from Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) significantly increased in adults for both sexes, while the communicable diseases are causing more deaths among children aged 0-14 years. Further, projection of causes of death up to 2031 suggests an increasing trend in mortality due to NCDs. However, the males’ mortality due to NCDs is predicted to be much higher than females by 2031. Further, we documented possible socio-demographic and economic factors associated with the causes of death profile for urban Maharashtra, a setting that is undergoing demographic, economic, health, and nutritional transition. We found that progress in the socio-demographic and economic condition’s effect on reducing the mortality from communicable diseases and rise in deaths from NCDs. A strong negative association was observed between improved socio-demographic factors (literacy level, 60 above population), economic condition (per capita NSDP, per capita health expenditure, social security expenditure) with mortality rates due to communicable diseases but vice versa with NCDs.
Keywords: Epidemiological transition; Causes of death; Non-communicable diseases; Communicable diseases; India