Community Pressure and Population Pressure: Evidence of Social Influence in Israeli Fertility
Much of the developed world, specifically members of the OECD, have experienced what many demographers consider a classic fertility transition resulting in a decline in fertility rates. In these countries fertility behaviors have resulted in fertility rates at or below replacement level (i.e., 2.1 TFR). As a rule, for these developed countries, while their GDP rises, their TFR declines. Except in Israel. Israel, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrated a strong and growing GDP and a strong and rising TFR in the Jewish sectors of society. Fertility rates in the non-Jewish sectors have declined.
Traditional demographic explanations fall short in explaining the current situation. Initial results from a national fertility behavior trends survey suggest that social influence to be a central force keeping fertility rates high among Jewish Israelis. One’s personal ideal family size (i.e., desired family size) and the general idealization of an ideal family size in Israeli society (i.e., ideal family size) correlate strongly. The more detailed analysis reveals that the number of children one current has, the number of siblings one has, and the perceived average family size in one’s community all have a statistically significant and positive influence on desired and ideal family sizes. Educational and income levels are not statistically significant forces, in fact, highly educated women report desiring and idealizing larger families. Women in Israel are well represented in both the educational sector and the labor force. What remains to consider are the social forces that might influence fertility choices, preferences, and behaviors.
Bernardi and Klärner (2014) suggest four possible social influence mechanisms to explain changes in fertility behaviors: social learning, social pressure, contagion, and social support. Historical forces, strong extended family relations, and high population density may all contribute to the social forces influencing fertility behaviors in Israel. Further research is underway to examine more deeply which of these mechanisms are influential in Israel and how they manifest in the society.
